Yemen: il Paese alle prese con tre diverse minacce interne rischia la frantumazione totale

In Yemen è in corso lo scontro delle istituzioni con due diversi gruppi di dissidenti. Il Southern Movement e i ribelli sciiti della tribù degli al-Huthi reclamano maggiore autonomia, l’inclusione nel processo decisionale e l’autogestione delle risorse economiche presenti nel sottosuolo. Questi gruppi però agiscono in modo indipendente e in diverse aree: i primi nelle province che costituivano lo Yemen del Sud, mentre i secondi nella zona settentrionale di Sa’ada. Contemporaneamente la formazione regionale di al-Qaeda continua la sua opera di training e di organizzazione di attentati mentre cerca di incunearsi nelle dinamiche del Paese. Continua...

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Piero Longo

(07 maggio 2010)

China – Taiwan: close economic ties and military confrontation

Although the international financial crises and the consequent slowdown in the last quarter of 2008 in the growth of China and Taiwan, the economic relations in the Taiwan Strait are stronger than ever. China is essential for Taiwan's economic development, as it is the primary trade partner, export market, trade surplus source and business investment destination. Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou's late efforts to make restoring talks with China and pursuing the normalization of cross-strait relations led to direct shipping and air links, fulfilling long-held expectations. Travelers no longer have to transit in Hong kong on their way to China.In parallel, China and Taiwan run a military build-up. Taipei improved defense capability to reduce its widening disparity vis-à-vis China (still in november, the outgoing Bush Administration approved the transfer of a raft of arms and weapons systems, long awaited from the taiwanese leadership). However, China's military is rapidly modernizing, increasing strategic projection, and its defence budget has grown by double digit for more than 15 years, while Taiwan's defense budget has remained low.US Navy will be ready to intervene with a rapid task force in case a crises occurs in the strategic Taiwan Strait to mantain open trade and oil routes. Continua...

 

Davide Cazzoni

(05 marzo 2009)

Russia: Middle Eastern policy

Russia\'s export figures to the ME have known a strong growth between 2006 and 2007, especially towards Iran and Syria, which confirm to be main russian partners in the region in the face of US-led sanctions, but the defense market still expose the limits of its real influence. Overall, rather than stoking a new arms race, Russia\'s efforts appear to be designed to boost its business ties with the region to resuscitate industries that are flagging at home. Defence and energy (nuclear, gas, oil) sales may be limited to a handful of nations, but in other areas Moscow is targeting the entire region. After Putin\'s third trip to the Middle East in 2007, Moscow has kept working hard hard to push russian SOE for Gulf Business, but it doesn\'t enjoy the same economic leverage as it does elsewhere. Continua...

 

Davide Cazzoni

(22 gennaio 2009)

Israel – Iran War Scenarios

1- the straightest and relatively easy route for Israeli aircraft, through Jordanian and Iraqi airspace. Amman would hardly react militarly and limit its retaliation to a public complaint. Going through Iraq makes Washington's consensus necessary, but US involvement would mean serious consequences for the region's stability. Entering Iran by overflying southern Al Faw Peninsula through Persian Gulf would not limit significantly US liabilities, while the route has not advantages in terms of length.2- bypassing Jordan through the Gulf of Aqaba and entering Saudi airspace means a much longer route, but Riadh complaining would not be a serious problem. Saudi Arabia-Iran regional rivalry is known.3- the northern route through Mediterranian Sea (along Lebanese and Syrian coasts) and Turkish-Syrian  border needs above all Ankara's consensus, which is not guaranteed despite of good relations with Jerusalem. In this scenario, with Esfahan as the farthest target, the Israeli aircraft should consider to lose some fighters because a refuelling mission in Turkish territory would be unlikely. Helicopters for Search&Rescue operations could be necessary off the Turkish coast.4- the longest route, through the Gulf of Aqaba-Saudi Arabia-Kuwait needs a dangerous refuelling mission above Persian Gulf, with the Israeli aircraft vulnerable to an Iranian counter-attack. Continua...

 

Davide Cazzoni

(27 ottobre 2008)

Mondo - Demografia - Popolazione

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Lorenzo Burgassi - Marco Orvieto

(19 dicembre 2005)

Percentuale di popolazione 0 - 14

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Lorenzo Burgassi - Marco Orvieto

(19 dicembre 2005)

Percentuale di popolazione 15 - 64

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€ 12,5 /  

Lorenzo Burgassi - Marco Orvieto

(19 dicembre 2005)